The CMI Mortality Projections Committee today launched its consultation on its latest model for projecting mortality rates, referred to as ‘CMI_2023’, inviting stakeholders to contribute to shaping the future of mortality projections in the aftermath of the pandemic.

The committee’s decision on what to propose in the core model was split 4 votes to 3, with a narrow majority preferring to assume life expectancies remain broadly unchanged rather than reducing from last year’s model. The split underscores the debate within the actuarial profession on the ongoing impact of Covid-19 on health outcomes.

The CMI model is widely used in the UK by trustees and sponsors for managing their defined benefit pension schemes.

Chris Tavener, partner at LCP, said: “Projecting life expectancies is particularly tricky at the moment given the ramifications of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing pressures on the NHS. It is, therefore, not surprising to see that the committee was split on whether life expectancies should remain unchanged or fall.

“LCP’s advice to trustees and sponsors of pension schemes highlights the need to think carefully about the drivers of mortality and how they will affect their members in the future.”