New figures published today by the Office for National Statistics provide further evidence that the DWP will have to ‘rethink’ its plans to continue with rapid increases in state pension age, according to Steve Webb, partner at consultants LCP.

State Pension Age (SPA) is currently 66 for both men and women.  Under current plans it will rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028. Existing legislation indicates a further rise to 68 between 2044 and 2046.  However, a review of state pension ages in 2017 (which was based on ONS population projections based on 2014 data) suggested reaching 68 in 2039 – seven years earlier.

ONS subsequently published projections based in 2018 and on that basis LCP assessed that the move to 67 and 68 would both need to be put back several decades. 

Today, ONS has published new estimates based on 2020 population data.  As the Table below shows, these projections show a further decline in life expectancy at (current) state pension age for both men and women.  Crucially, compared with the projections on which the last state pension age review was based, the new projections suggest that for men and women currently at pension age, their life expectancy is now more than two years shorter than previously thought.  Most of this deterioration actually occurred before the Pandemic, and we are yet to see the full extent to which Covid-19 will impact on life expectancies in the long-term.

Source: ONS projections, various years (see: Expectation of life, principal projection, UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)).  Note – all figures are for ‘cohort’ life expectancies as this is the definition used by the Government Actuary in its report on state pension age changes.

According to LCP partner Steve Webb, this latest data reinforces the case for a fundamental rethink of the timetable for increasing state pension ages, and in particular for the Government to look again at the plan to start moving towards a pension age of 67 in just four years’ time.

Steve Webb said: “The last review of state pension ages was based on data which is now more than six years out-of-date.  Since then, life expectancy at pension age for both men and women has dropped by more than two years.  Such a dramatic shift in such a short space of time calls for a fundamental rethink of the government’s plans for increases in state pension age.  With the move to 67 due to start in only four years, DWP needs to speed up its current review, as the case for rapid increases is simply not justified by the evidence”.

Note to editors:

ONS in their commentary on the 2020 estimates describe them as ‘interim’.  In part this is because the data runs to June 2020 and therefore only captures the first few months of the Pandemic.  This means that they do not reflect the full impact of the Pandemic and also do not reflect the wider impacts of the Pandemic such as the strain on the NHS and knock-on effects through longer waiting lists etc. on life expectancies.