How we provided our client with detailed forecasts of the different revenue streams available to a battery in the Irish power market.
We were commissioned to provide battery asset forecasts for a battery asset location in Ireland, across a range of future scenarios. This included forecasts of wholesale and balancing margins, DS3 revenues and embedded costs or benefits.
LCP’s I-SEM analysis is conducted using our EnVision modelling framework. This includes fully integrated modelling of Ireland and GB, including the latest policy developments in both markets. It is specifically designed to capture the dynamics of all markets: wholesale, capacity, balancing, system constraints and DS3 services. We model wind and solar plant output stochastically by sampling from a large historic database (35+ years) of wind speeds and solar intensities at granular locations. The high wind penetration and small system size of Ireland creates additional complexity in the operation of the system. This results in a high degree of uncertainty, particularly in the DS3 regime, and we provided different scenarios to capture this uncertainty.
Once we have this information we used LCP’s proprietary algorithm to simulate the dispatch of storage assets across the energy markets, considering the additional revenues available from providing DS3 services (particularly in times of low synchronous generation). In this algorithm storage assets can optimise their behaviour and decide on their dispatch based on the fundamentals of their technical characteristics and active market participants.
The results from forecasting were used to base decisions on whether to invest in battery assets, and if so what specifications (duration and size) to build.
How we can help
We can help our clients with a wide range of issues from whole system modelling to individual power plant and policy impact analysis.
Strategic advice aimed at maximising the benefits and minimising the risks associated with the Capacity Market and Contracts for Difference.
We advise on the optimal dispatch of assets within the wholesale market, forward planning of maintenance activities and valuation of commercial upgrades to plant.
We provide detailed forecasts of the GB and Irish power markets, using our EnVision modelling framework. This can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of all key system metrics, from system wide to individual assets.
We work extensively in the Irish market, providing market modelling and analysis to investors, generation owners and governments.
Enact is an advanced data integration and analytics platform for the GB electricity short-term markets, allowing power traders to make more informed decisions and analysts to benchmark their asset's performance.
Our understanding of market dynamics and modelling experience allow us to offer evidence-based recommendations on complex policy and regulatory issues that allow fully informed decision-making.
We combine bottom-up unit-level modelling with market and policy insights to quantify the value and understand the risk associated with any generation asset.