LCP has worked with clients such as Energy UK to analyse the impacts of different gas network charging options on the GB gas network.
Modelling GB’s gas supply presents different challenges to the electricity market due to the different underlying drivers of market behaviour. As opposed to the dispatch algorithms used in modelling the electricity market, LCP’s forecasting in this area has instead focused on creating price sensitivity curves for gas supply points.
This approach has been employed to examine the potential impacts of Ofgem’s proposed changes to gas transmission charging which have included:
- The replacement of the current Long Range Marginal Cost (LRMC) methodology with a Capacity Weighted Distance (CWD) approach
- The update or removal of the NTS Optional Capacity Charge (“Shorthaul” tariff)
Our analysis has considered the likely impacts in key areas such as wholesale prices, consumer costs, changes in flows at individual entry points and storage behaviour. We have also assessed the risks to the availability and utilisation of interruptible exit capacity for specified exit points.
Additionally, our gas network modelling can be used in conjunction with our power-market model (EnVision) to understand the implications on the power market as a result of changes in the marginal running costs for gas-fired power stations.
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How we can help
We can help our clients with a wide range of issues from whole system modelling to individual power plant and policy impact analysis.
Strategic advice aimed at maximising the benefits and minimising the risks associated with the Capacity Market and Contracts for Difference.
We advise on the optimal dispatch of assets within the wholesale market, forward planning of maintenance activities and valuation of commercial upgrades to plant.
We provide detailed forecasts of the GB and Irish power markets, using our EnVision modelling framework. This can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of all key system metrics, from system wide to individual assets.
We work extensively in the Irish market, providing market modelling and analysis to investors, generation owners and governments.
Our understanding of market dynamics and modelling experience allow us to offer evidence-based recommendations on complex policy and regulatory issues that allow fully informed decision-making.
We combine bottom-up unit-level modelling with market and policy insights to quantify the value and understand the risk associated with any generation asset.