LCP has worked with clients such as Energy UK to analyse the impacts of different gas network charging options on the GB gas network.
market forecasting and scenarios
Electricity markets around the world are fundamentally transforming. The push to decarbonise the network has led to the introduction of low-carbon support mechanisms, capacity markets, and an increase in the range and importance of ancillary service markets.
Conventional generation sources are increasingly complemented by intermittent renewables, demand side response and storage technologies.
As a result, electricity market modelling must adapt accordingly. LCP’s energy market forecasting has been continually enhanced to reflect these developments.
How we can help
We provide detailed forecasts of the GB and Irish power markets, using our EnVision modelling framework. This can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of all key system metrics, from system wide to individual assets.
We can provide forecasts for:
- Wholesale market prices – baseload, off-peak, peak, wind-captured
- Balancing mechanism forecasts – bid and offer prices, volumes and revenues for individual assets
- Ancillary services markets
- Capacity market auction outcomes
- CfD auction outcomes
- Network and balancing system charges –TNUoS, DUoS, BSUoS
- Generation and capacity mix
- Carbon intensity
- System and consumer costs
- Individual asset operations and revenues
Our modelling is continually developed and calibrated to incorporate the latest market developments. We typically provide our forecasts under a set of market scenarios, to help understand the range of likely outcomes. We can also tailor the forecast to allow for any in-house views.
How we have helped our clients
How LCP specialists delivered bottom-up modelling of the electricity market to assess investment dynamics in a reformed energy market.
Ofgem commissioned LCP to provide modelling support in their analysis of modifications CMP264/265 relating to so-called ‘embedded benefits’.
How LCP advisers helped DECC to identify technologies which can provide greatest benefits to the wide energy system.
Our Energy market forecasting and scenarios experts
Explore our solutions
We can help our clients with a wide range of issues from whole system modelling to individual power plant and policy impact analysis.Discover more
Strategic advice aimed at maximising the benefits and minimising the risks associated with the Capacity Market and Contracts for Difference.Discover more
We advise on the optimal dispatch of assets within the wholesale market, forward planning of maintenance activities and valuation of commercial upgrades to plant.Discover more
We work extensively in the Irish market, providing market modelling and analysis to investors, generation owners and governments.Irish market support
Our understanding of market dynamics and modelling experience allow us to offer evidence-based recommendations on complex policy and regulatory issues that allow fully informed decision-making.Discover more
We combine bottom-up unit-level modelling with market and policy insights to quantify the value and understand the risk associated with any generation asset.Discover more