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Energy analytics

Energy
market forecasting and scenarios

Electricity markets around the world are fundamentally transforming. The push to decarbonise the network has led to the introduction of low-carbon support mechanisms, capacity markets, and an increase in the range and importance of ancillary service markets.

Conventional generation sources are increasingly complemented by intermittent renewables, demand side response and storage technologies.

As a result, electricity market modelling must adapt accordingly. LCP’s energy market forecasting has been continually enhanced to reflect these developments.

How we can help

We provide detailed forecasts of the GB and Irish power markets, using our EnVision modelling framework. This can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of all key system metrics, from system wide to individual assets.

We can provide forecasts for:

  • Wholesale market prices – baseload, off-peak, peak, wind-captured
  • Balancing mechanism forecasts – bid and offer prices, volumes and revenues for individual assets
  • Ancillary services markets
  • Capacity market auction outcomes
  • CfD auction outcomes
  • Network and balancing system charges –TNUoS, DUoS, BSUoS
  • Generation and capacity mix
  • Carbon intensity
  • System and consumer costs
  • Individual asset operations and revenues

Our modelling is continually developed and calibrated to incorporate the latest market developments. We typically provide our forecasts under a set of market scenarios, to help understand the range of likely outcomes. We can also tailor the forecast to allow for any in-house views.

How we have helped our clients

Gas network modelling

Gas network modelling

LCP has worked with clients such as Energy UK to analyse the impacts of different gas network charging options on the GB gas network.

Generation assets valuation

Generation assets valuation

How LCP specialists delivered bottom-up modelling of the electricity market to assess investment dynamics in a reformed energy market.

Our Energy market forecasting and scenarios experts

Explore our solutions

Bespoke modelling solutions

We can help our clients with a wide range of issues from whole system modelling to individual power plant and policy impact analysis.

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Capacity Market and CfD advice

Strategic advice aimed at maximising the benefits and minimising the risks associated with the Capacity Market and Contracts for Difference.

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Commercial and operational optimisation

We advise on the optimal dispatch of assets within the wholesale market, forward planning of maintenance activities and valuation of commercial upgrades to plant.

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Irish market support

We work extensively in the Irish market, providing market modelling and analysis to investors, generation owners and governments.

Irish market support
Policy impact studies

Our understanding of market dynamics and modelling experience allow us to offer evidence-based recommendations on complex policy and regulatory issues that allow fully informed decision-making.

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Transaction support and generation asset valuations

We combine bottom-up unit-level modelling with market and policy insights to quantify the value and understand the risk associated with any generation asset. 

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