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Energy analytics

Wind asset
modelling

Background

LCP has worked with a number of investors and generation owners in GB and Ireland to evaluate specific wind assets.

Our solution

Our modelling framework enables us to project the generation profiles, achieved prices and imbalance costs for these individual wind assets.

By analysing historic wind speed data, we can assess the correlation of the asset’s generation and that of the fleet and produce concurrent stochastic projections for both wind streams. Combining this with a stochastic simulation of plant outages, demand and solar generation produces a detailed assessment of plant economics, such as the captured wholesale price.

In addition, we are able to evaluate the relationship between the forecasting error of the individual wind asset’s generation and that of the wider wind fleet – which determines the exposure of the asset to imbalance risk.

Our results

Using our modelling, we are able to report:

  • Expected average load factors for the assets
  • Achieved price of the assets in the wholesale market
  • Exposure to imbalance risk
  • The frequency with which the asset’s position is aligned with the system imbalance
  • Expected levels of wind generation curtailment for system operation constraints
  • Expected support payments from low-carbon policy regimes

How we can help

Bespoke modelling solutions

We can help our clients with a wide range of issues from whole system modelling to individual power plant and policy impact analysis.

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Capacity Market and CfD advice

Strategic advice aimed at maximising the benefits and minimising the risks associated with the Capacity Market and Contracts for Difference.

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Commercial and operational optimisation

We advise on the optimal dispatch of assets within the wholesale market, forward planning of maintenance activities and valuation of commercial upgrades to plant.

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Energy market forecasting and scenarios

We provide detailed forecasts of the GB and Irish power markets, using our EnVision modelling framework. This can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of all key system metrics, from system wide to individual assets.

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Irish market support

We work extensively in the Irish market, providing market modelling and analysis to investors, generation owners and governments.

Irish market support
Policy impact studies

Our understanding of market dynamics and modelling experience allow us to offer evidence-based recommendations on complex policy and regulatory issues that allow fully informed decision-making.

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Transaction support and generation asset valuations

We combine bottom-up unit-level modelling with market and policy insights to quantify the value and understand the risk associated with any generation asset. 

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