Energy analytics

Capacity Market deratings


In 2017, LCP were commissioned to support National Grid in modelling the contribution of limited duration storage plants to system security. This work was ultimately used to inform the de-ratings for different durations of storage in the capacity mechanism.

Since 2014, National Grid have used LCP’s Unserved Energy Model (UEM) to produce the analysis for its annual Electricity Capacity Report and to provide recommendations on the CM auction capacity requirement. This project allowed the UEM to reflect the impact on system security of differing storage capabilities.  

Our solution

We worked with National Grid in the design, implementation and optimisation of four separate algorithms to model the possible ways that storage plant could operate, considering their durations, capacities and level of coordination. The model was used to determine the Equivalent Firm Capacities (EFCs) of incremental amounts of storage capacity of various durations, based on a system with a Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) of 3 hours but using changes in Expected Energy Unserved (EEU) to determine the EFC.

The results

The results of this modelling were used to produce the “Duration-Limited Storage De-Rating Factor Assessment” final report by National Grid in December 2017, and inform the de-ratings used for storage’s participation in subsequent capacity auctions. 

How we can help

Bespoke modelling solutions

We can help our clients with a wide range of issues from whole system modelling to individual power plant and policy impact analysis.

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Capacity Market and CfD advice

Strategic advice aimed at maximising the benefits and minimising the risks associated with the Capacity Market and Contracts for Difference.

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Commercial and operational optimisation

We advise on the optimal dispatch of assets within the wholesale market, forward planning of maintenance activities and valuation of commercial upgrades to plant.

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Energy market forecasting and scenarios

We provide detailed forecasts of the GB and Irish power markets, using our EnVision modelling framework. This can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of all key system metrics, from system wide to individual assets.

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Irish market support

We work extensively in the Irish market, providing market modelling and analysis to investors, generation owners and governments.

Irish market support
Policy impact studies

Our understanding of market dynamics and modelling experience allow us to offer evidence-based recommendations on complex policy and regulatory issues that allow fully informed decision-making.

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Transaction support and generation asset valuations

We combine bottom-up unit-level modelling with market and policy insights to quantify the value and understand the risk associated with any generation asset. 

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